Airfares to Europe are falling

If you're fence-sitting about a trip to Europe, here's a suggestion: Stop dithering and start grabbing some of the best fall and winter deals in years. They'll probably disappear as fast as autumn leaves in a rainstorm.

 A five-night package to Paris, with hotel and round-trip air from LAX, starting at $599 per person, double occupancy, for September and October. That's $80 less than last fall.

 A weeklong fly-drive jaunt in England, with round-trip air to Manchester from LAX, and seven-day car rental in fall, starting at $529 per person, double occupancy. (Lodging is extra.)

Travelers who held off booking summer trips to Europe, hoping for their plans to settle or for last-minute discounts, paid a heavy price. Published airfares gained altitude through the peak season, topping $1,000 for many transatlantic round trips.

The weakened dollar makes it all the more worthwhile to consider going in fall or winter.

One reason for good off-season discounts this year: A big rebound in American visitors, which was expected after the Iraq war wound down, hasn't happened. Europe expects to host 10.3 million to 11 million U.S. visitors in 2003, slightly below last year's total and nearly a fifth fewer than in 2000, according to the European Travel Commission.

The erosion may be worse than these numbers suggest. At France Vacations, which sent about 15,000 people to France last year, this year will be lucky if we reach 9,000. Portugal, which usually hosts about 290,000 Americans annually, expects only 127,000 this year, said Luis Avides, director of the San Francisco branch of the Portuguese National Tourist Office.

It's not just geopolitics holding travel back. After all, Portugal, unlike France, backed the U.S. campaign in Iraq. Rather, Avides said, Americans are worried about their dwindling retirement nest eggs and, with recent terrorist and respiratory disease threats, they are uneasy about traveling far from home. He doesn't think those concerns will disappear soon.

Neither, apparently, do the airlines. For transatlantic travel starting Sept. 1, most airlines have cut their fares substantially. That's an indication that the forward bookings haven't come in as they were hoping.

Anybody who is thinking of going on holiday should travel between September and May. There are more off-season discounting this year than last.

With savings like that, you may have enough left over to pick up a scarf or two at Hermès.